In this not-so-hypothetical scenario, the Russian economy could experience a severe collapse due to the confluence of three interrelated events: a war with Ukraine, sanctions on its oil and gas industry, and a rebellion against President Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian rule.
The first event, a war with Ukraine, could result in significant military spending and economic disruption. The conflict could disrupt trade, damage infrastructure, and decrease the flow of goods and services within the region.
The second event, sanctions on the oil and gas industry, could be imposed by international actors in response to Russia’s aggressive behavior. The oil and gas sector is a significant contributor to the Russian economy, and the loss of access to international markets and financing could have a significant impact on its growth and stability.
The third event, a rebellion against President Putin’s authoritarian rule, could occur as a result of widespread public discontent over the economic crisis and the war with Ukraine. The combination of economic hardship, conflict, and widespread poverty could lead to protests and unrest, which could escalate into a full-blown rebellion. This could result in further instability and violence, further damaging the country’s economy and making it difficult for the government to regain control.
Overall, this hypothetical scenario of a Russian economy collapse would be a complex and challenging situation with far-reaching implications for the country and its citizens.