When Russian drones pierce Polish airspace, the shock is not just in the buzzing hum above the border towns—it is in the realization that Russia is deliberately testing NATO’s edge. For Poland, which has become the alliance’s eastern bulwark, the question is not whether Moscow’s drones were a “mistake” or not. The question is how to stop them from happening again, especially if Washington under Trump hesitates to respond. One scenario gaining traction in Warsaw’s security circles is deceptively simple: instead of endlessly playing defense, help Ukraine push the battlefield back by strengthening its long-range strike capabilities.
This logic is rooted in hard geography. As long as Russian launch platforms—be they airfields, staging sites, or depots—remain intact in western Russia and occupied territories, drones and missiles can keep streaming westward. Poland’s air defenses, no matter how advanced, will always be stuck in a reactive posture. The alternative is to support Ukraine with precision long-range weapons, reconnaissance, and targeting data that allow Kyiv to dismantle the threat at its source. In practice, that could mean deeper cooperation on Storm Shadow and SCALP systems already in Ukrainian hands, lobbying Germany to release Taurus missiles, or even pushing the European Union toward a collective fund for producing indigenous long-range strike assets.
For Poland, this scenario is both strategic and political. Strategically, it shifts the burden: every Russian fuel dump destroyed east of Kharkiv or every drone assembly site hit in Bryansk reduces the number of drones that might buzz over Lublin. Politically, it signals that Warsaw does not need to wait for U.S. consensus to shape outcomes; it can galvanize European partners into action. The EU has already taken steps to boost artillery shell production, but Poland would argue that in the drone age, sheer volume is not enough—range and precision are what bend the curve.
The risks are clear, of course. Moscow would see expanded Ukrainian strike capacity as escalatory and could retaliate more aggressively against both Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank. Yet Poland understands that escalation is already here, creeping in through fragments of drone wreckage in its villages. What Warsaw would be doing in this scenario is not widening the war, but shortening the distance between Russian provocations and European resolve.
By championing Ukraine’s ability to hit farther and harder, Poland would be betting that deterrence is not built on apologies or closed airspace, but on making the costs of aggression unbearably high before the drones even take off. That is a gamble—but for Warsaw, caught between Russian brinkmanship and American hesitation, it may be the most rational one left.
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